NCAA basketball forecast

Chronological team Elo ratings trained on public hoopR/ESPN men's college basketball results. Upcoming games show model win probabilities when a forward schedule is present in the source data.

Completed games

122,716

Rated teams

1,339

Brier

0.183

Accuracy

72.6%

Upcoming predictions

Home win probability; neutral-site games remove home edge.

Updated Jun 9, 2026

Mar 4, 2002rating diff 139.9

Niagara Purple Eagles

69.1%

Canisius Golden Griffins

Mar 4, 2002rating diff 359.7

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

88.8%

Western Illinois Leathernecks

Nov 23, 2002rating diff 124.3

Ball State Cardinals

67.2%

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Dec 5, 2002rating diff 213.6

Western Carolina Catamounts

77.4%

Reinhardt Eagles

Dec 5, 2002rating diff 356.0

Wofford Terriers

88.6%

Toccoa Falls Eagles

Dec 5, 2002rating diff 44.0

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

56.3%

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Dec 6, 2002rating diff 86.3

Davidson Wildcats

62.2%

James Madison Dukes

Dec 6, 2002rating diff 34.0

Lafayette Leopards

54.9%

Centenary College (NJ) Cyclones

Dec 6, 2002rating diff -144.6

Morgan State Bears

30.3%

Towson Tigers

Dec 6, 2002rating diff 123.1

North Carolina A&T Aggies

67.0%

Elon Phoenix

Dec 6, 2002rating diff 259.7

Seton Hall Pirates

81.7%

Saint Peter's Peacocks

Dec 8, 2002rating diff 77.2

High Point Panthers

60.9%

Averett Cougars

Jan 18, 2003rating diff 227.3

Yale Bulldogs

78.7%

Brown Bears

Jan 19, 2003rating diff 156.4

Tennessee State Tigers

71.1%

Austin Peay Governors

Feb 17, 2003rating diff 119.5

Maryland Terrapins

66.6%

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Feb 18, 2003rating diff 295.9

Howard Bison

84.6%

Florida A&M Rattlers

Feb 18, 2003rating diff -189.8

Georgetown Hoyas

25.1%

Pittsburgh Panthers

Feb 18, 2003rating diff -155.6

Long Island University Sharks

29.0%

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Feb 18, 2003rating diff 28.5

Monmouth Hawks

54.1%

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Feb 18, 2003rating diff 228.5

UNC Greensboro Spartans

78.8%

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Feb 18, 2003rating diff -148.1

VMI Keydets

29.9%

Chattanooga Mocs

Feb 18, 2003rating diff 244.0

Wagner Seahawks

80.3%

Central Connecticut Blue Devils

Feb 18, 2003rating diff 105.9

Wofford Terriers

64.8%

Appalachian State Mountaineers

Feb 18, 2003rating diff 139.1

Akron Zips

69.0%

Ohio Bobcats

Feb 18, 2003rating diff 66.7

Coppin State Eagles

59.5%

Hampton Pirates