Model performance
Chronological pre-game scoring on completed games. Lower Brier/log loss is better; accuracy uses the 50% threshold.
Games
122,716
Log loss
0.543
Brier
0.183
Accuracy
72.7%
| Predicted bucket | Games | Avg prediction | Actual home win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.1 | 155 | 8.0% | 3.2% | 0.033 |
| 0.1-0.2 | 1872 | 16.4% | 13.7% | 0.118 |
| 0.2-0.3 | 5276 | 25.7% | 25.3% | 0.188 |
| 0.3-0.4 | 9590 | 35.4% | 37.3% | 0.233 |
| 0.4-0.5 | 14542 | 45.4% | 49.1% | 0.250 |
| 0.5-0.6 | 20973 | 55.2% | 60.6% | 0.241 |
| 0.6-0.7 | 24625 | 65.0% | 71.5% | 0.208 |
| 0.7-0.8 | 22793 | 74.9% | 81.4% | 0.155 |
| 0.8-0.9 | 17310 | 84.6% | 90.8% | 0.087 |
| 0.9-1.0 | 5580 | 92.9% | 97.5% | 0.026 |
Chronological pre-game scoring over completed hoopR/ESPN games. This is historical validation, not a betting-market comparison.